On Staten Island, winter may have its way over the next few weeks.

After Hurricane Sandy, and winter storm/nor’easter Athena that followed, Staten Island’s weather has been considerably tranquil, however, that maybe about to change in the next week or so.

Over the last 6 weeks, the northeast has been hiding out on the Sothern half of the Jetstream as shifting trough fluctuated through the Midwest, Plains, and the Canadian border. It’s a pattern that favors us here in the northeast. While we have seen our share of fog and cloudiness over the last several weeks, at its root we warm air moving from the south, and a southeasterly flow of marine air making its way into our neck of the woods. Some might say a Seattle effect.

If you haven’t noticed, tides in the area were elevated a bit from the persistent flow of south and southeasterly breezes. A powerful winter storm this week in the Midwest gave Staten Island another wind and rain storm, which once again, knocked out power to some on Staten Island and caused some minor overwash of seawater in places. However, the storm, at least according to the latest GFS computer model, is what we may like to call a pattern changer storm for us in the Northeast. The high winds over the last couple days are the first signs of the pattern change.

The storm now into Canada will pinwheel colder air to our area and cause a deepening and more persistent trough to move further south and east. That makes for a much stormier weather pattern for our area, even the possibility of a Nor’easter late next week. The question is whether it comes in the form of significant snow, rain or a combination of both. Over the early part of the week a series of disturbed and colder and snow showery weather over the next week as the jet stream rides close by as smaller less organized low-pressure rides along it.

The jet stream sets up with a south to northerly dip which grabs warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and brings it into cold Canadian air mass. In a Nor’ Easter scenario storms move southwest to northeast along the Jetstream and grow more powerful as the difference between the cold and warm air have greater contrast.

While nothing in forecasting weather can be for certain, but it looks like a stormier pattern is ahead for Staten Island. The question is: Will it be Rain or Snow?

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